NBA Betting Picks for Nov. 20, 2025: Magic, Hawks, and Over 224.5 Points Lead Expert Picks
Nov, 20 2025
On Thursday, November 20, 2025, four NBA games ignite betting markets across the league — but it’s the Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and the Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks matchup that’s drawing the most attention from analysts and sharp bettors alike. With injuries reshaping team dynamics and long losing streaks hanging over two teams, the evening’s action isn’t just about who wins — it’s about who covers, who scores, and who breaks the slump.
Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Clippers: The Underdog Edge
At 7 p.m. ET, the Orlando Magic host the Los Angeles Clippers in a game that feels more like a reckoning than a rivalry. Despite being listed as 5.5-point underdogs, the Magic have quietly turned things around since Bol Bol’s departure from the rotation — not because they’ve improved defensively, but because their offense has found rhythm. User '#1' on the Covers.com NBA Betting Forum put it bluntly: ‘Orlando have been playing beeter without Pacheco. Clippers have been tanking lately and Harden can only do so much.’ The sentiment echoes across multiple platforms. The Clippers, without Kawhi Leonard and with James Harden carrying an unsustainable scoring load, have lost three of their last four. In simulations, Orlando covers the -5.5 spread in nearly 62% of outcomes. That’s not just luck — it’s trend.
Atlanta Hawks vs. San Antonio Spurs: The Overlooked Moneyline Gem
At 8 p.m. ET, the Atlanta Hawks travel to face the injury-riddled San Antonio Spurs, and the betting world is whispering about a value play: Atlanta’s moneyline at +100. The SportsLine Projection Model, which has generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors over eight seasons, shows Atlanta covering the 1.5-point spread in 70% of its 10,000 simulations. Why? Because the Spurs are a mess. They’ve lost four of five, and their last two wins came against the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies — teams currently on 7- and 5-game skids, respectively. Jalen Johnson is projected for 22 points, with six Hawks players expected to clear 12. The Spurs? They’re averaging just 104.3 points per game over their last five — worse than any team in the Eastern Conference. This isn’t a fluke. It’s a collapse.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Chaos on the Court
Then comes the game that’s turning heads: Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are favored by 2.5 points — despite Giannis Antetokounmpo being out for the third straight game. That’s the wild card. FanDuel’s research team calls it ‘the most volatile line of the night.’ Without Giannis, Milwaukee’s offense drops from 121.4 to 107.8 points per game. Their defense? It’s porous. The 76ers, meanwhile, have been playing with purpose since Joel Embiid returned from his knee issue. The Over 224.5 points (-110) is the pick here, and for good reason: in their last five games without Giannis, the Bucks have gone Over the total in four. The 76ers have gone Over in three of four. Combine that with two teams that play fast, and you’ve got a scoring explosion waiting to happen.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings: The Streak Breaker
The final game of the night pits two teams desperate for a win: the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings. Memphis has lost five straight. Sacramento? Seven. One of these streaks ends Thursday. But who? The Grizzlies have been outscored by an average of 11.2 points per game during their skid. The Kings? Their offense is dead — no player is averaging more than 17.8 points over the last week. The line opened at Kings -3.5, but it’s drifted to -5.5 as public money floods in on Sacramento. That’s a red flag. The Grizzlies are still the more talented team. Ja Morant’s return is rumored for next week. Until then, they’re playing with pride. Look for Memphis to cover — and maybe even win outright.
Why This Night Matters Beyond the Box Score
This isn’t just about who wins. It’s about how betting markets react to injury uncertainty. Giannis out? The Bucks’ line shrinks. Harden carrying the Clippers? The line balloons. The SportsLine Projection Model doesn’t guess — it simulates. 10,000 times. And it’s been right on 28 of its last 13 top-rated spread picks. That’s not luck. That’s data. Meanwhile, the Covers.com forum shows how individual insight — even from anonymous users — can spot trends before the big outlets catch on. And FanDuel’s analysis proves institutional teams are now factoring in not just player stats, but *team volatility* — a new layer of betting intelligence.
What’s Next? The Ripple Effect
If the Magic cover, their confidence will surge ahead of their December home stretch. If Atlanta wins outright, Jalen Johnson becomes a breakout candidate. If the Over hits in Philly, expect the total to rise to 228+ in future matchups. And if the Grizzlies finally break their skid? That’s the kind of win that can flip a season. The NBA’s 82-game grind doesn’t care about streaks — but bettors do. And right now, the market’s mispricing desperation.
Key Factors to Watch Before Tip-Off
- Final injury reports for Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) — though he’s confirmed out
- James Harden’s minutes and shot volume (Clippers)
- Whether Sacramento’s offense can generate more than 105 points
- Any last-minute line shifts on the Hawks’ moneyline — +100 is a rare value
- How the Grizzlies respond to being written off by the public
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Atlanta Hawks moneyline at +100 against the Spurs?
The +100 odds reflect market skepticism — the Spurs are decimated by injuries, with four key rotation players out, and have lost four of five. Atlanta, meanwhile, has won four of their last six on the road, including a win over Detroit. The SportsLine model gives Atlanta a 68% chance to win outright, making the moneyline a rare value despite their 1.5-point spread underdog status.
How reliable is the SportsLine Projection Model?
Over the past eight seasons, the model has returned over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated NBA picks. It simulates every game 10,000 times using team efficiency, pace, injuries, and home/away splits. Its current 28-13 record on top spread picks since last season gives it a 68% win rate — significantly above the 52.5% needed to break even after vig.
Why is the Over 224.5 points the top pick for 76ers-Bucks?
With Giannis Antetokounmpo out, Milwaukee’s offense has dropped by nearly 14 points per game, but their defense has collapsed even faster. The 76ers are playing faster since Embiid returned, and both teams average over 115 points per game this season. In their last five games without Giannis, the Bucks have gone Over the total in four. The line sits at 224.5 — unusually low for two teams with this offensive profile.
What’s driving the Orlando Magic’s recent improvement?
Since Bol Bol’s reduced minutes, Orlando’s offense has become more balanced. Franz Wagner is averaging 24.3 points over the last week, and their bench has improved its 3-point shooting from 31% to 38%. The Clippers, by contrast, are over-reliant on Harden — who’s averaged 36.2 points in their last three losses, yet still lost all three. The Magic’s defense isn’t elite, but they’re forcing 15.8 turnovers per game — up from 12.1 in October.
Are the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies both tanking?
Not officially — but both teams are clearly in transition. Sacramento’s front office has been quiet about their rebuild, while Memphis is waiting on Ja Morant’s return. Both have lost key rotation players to injury. But the Grizzlies still have a higher ceiling: they’ve outperformed their record in net rating, and their defense is still top-15 in defensive rebounding. Sacramento’s offense is the worst in the West — and they’ve shown no signs of improvement.
How do late injuries affect NBA betting lines?
Late scratches — especially for All-Stars like Giannis or Anthony Davis — can shift lines by 3 to 5 points in minutes. Bookmakers rely on predictive models that adjust instantly to injury reports. That’s why the 76ers-Bucks line dropped from +4.5 to +2.5 after Giannis was ruled out. Smart bettors monitor official team reports at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET — when most injuries are confirmed.